By Erik Horne
Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul is off to the Houston Rockets. What does it mean for Blake Griffin?
The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Paul will be traded to the Rockets for Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley, Sam Dekker, and a 2018 first-round pick (Top 3 protected). Wojnarowski also said Paul and former Thunder guard James Harden “were determined to play together.”
What does it mean for the Thunder? It’s uncertain, but it’s another strengthening move for the teams in the Western Conference in a relatively quiet summer (so far) for OKC.
What could be revealed soon, however, is the fate of Griffin, the Oklahoma City native and former University of Oklahoma All-American. That fate could be directly related to the Thunder.
Griffin and Paul reportedly were at odds on the Clippers, who had idled in the last six seasons, never advancing past the second round in the Western Conference playoffs. Both were each set to opt out of the final year of their contracts to enter free agency this summer, but Paul opted in to orchestrate his trade. Griffin exercised his early termination clause on June 23.
Was told last month – per a source close w/Blake+brother Taylor, Blake wants no part of CP3 and grown increasingly frustrated w/organization
https://twitter.com/wojverticalnba/status/878366797036003328 …
There’s no indication that Griffin wants to play in Oklahoma City. But if he’s disgruntled with the Clippers and their front office, it could lead to his exit.
The Clippers recently added Jerry West to their front office as a consultant, which could help retain Griffin in free agency … unless West is intent on cleaning house in preparation for some mega moves next summer.
That’s where a sign-and-trade could come into play for Oklahoma City.
What would it take?
The Clippers didn’t want to let Paul walk for nothing, so they really wind up as a winner in the Rockets deal (the Rockets win, too, if they got the guy they were after, can clear more cap space, and possibly attract another free agent like Paul George or Gordon Hayward). The Clippers received assets for a player who apparently wanted to walk and play with Harden.
Could the same happen with Griffin? For it to happen with the Thunder, Griffin would have to walk into the Clippers’ office and say “I want to go to Oklahoma City. Let’s make it happen. Sign-and-trade me there.”
The Clippers are in a position where they can’t gain significant cap relief if Griffin was to leave in free agency. For the Clippers, the sign-and-trade would be a better option than losing Griffin for nothing and having little cap space to show for it, whether it’s a deal struck with the Thunder or another team.
Clippers would only have had $36m in cap space if they left CP, Blake and JJ (and all their FA) go in FA. Little $ with so many holes.
I won’t speculate who or what would have to be included in a deal to get Griffin to the Thunder, but Russell Westbrook ($28.5 million), Steven Adams ($22.4 million), Victor Oladipo ($21 million) and Enes Kanter ($17.8 million) occupy nearly $90 million of the projected $99 million salary cap in 2017-18. Also, keep in mind that none of the contracts that the Clippers took on in the deal with the Rockets are guaranteed past 2017-18. It appears they’re clearing the books for something big, many have rumored a run at LeBron James next summer or even two max free agents in the future. They have not taken on any burdensome contracts, and starting center DeAndre Jordan has been rumored to have been on the trading block as well.
LAC could have $70m+ in room during the summer of 2018. Slate would be wiped clean to put a plan in place for the future.
Kanter has a player option for $18.6 million 2018-19. Adams and Oladipo are signed through 2020-21.
At around $111 million in guaranteed salaries this upcoming season, the Thunder doesn’t have the cap space to sign Griffin outright. As far as draft assets, its first-round picks are tied up until 2022 (2018 to Utah as part of the Kanter trade; 2020 or 2021 to Orlando based on if it falls within the Top 20). The Thunder could conceivably get $30 million under the salary cap to sign Griffin as an outright free agent, but it would be very difficult. It would require the Thunder dealing multiple pieces to teams with ample cap space while not taking back salary in the deals. The Thunder likely wouldn’t attempt to make such moves unless they had an assurance that Griffin wanted to sign.
It’s why the sign-and-trade is the option – presuming Griffin wants to come to Oklahoma City.
What about the money?
If he were to sign a max deal, Griffin could make 30 percent of the salary cap. He missed out on qualifying for the Designated Veteran Player Exception, so he has incentive to take a short deal and get to 10 years of service so he’ll be eligible for 35 percent of the salary cap. Griffin just completed his seventh NBA season.
Griffin is eligible to make more money with the Clippers than any other team – $175 million over five years, per the L.A. Times – since they own his Bird Rights. If Griffin were to go elsewhere in free agency (or engineer a sign-and-trade), he’d get less – $130 million over four years.
On a four-year deal, Griffin would make about $30 million in the first year of his deal, escalating to $31 million, $33 million and $34 million each preceding year.
Where does Griffin want to be?
The difference in the money Griffin could make staying in Los Angeles is clear. So far, it appears that the Clippers want to re-sign him, but does Griffin want to stay? The Thunder has been rumored to have been interested in Griffin for more than a year.
And yes, this does mean Clippers are focused on retaining Blake Griffin in free agency, per league sources.
Oklahoma City is home, but L.A. may be where Griffin wants to be, particularly with Paul elsewhere. Griffin’s girlfriend and two children live in Los Angeles and he has several business interests in the area, among them stake in a movie production company.
But if Griffin can stay healthy, the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop possibilities with Griffin and Westbrook are potentially among the best in the league. Griffin, an excellent passer and ball handler, would be the ball-movement big man Billy Donovan has been seeking in the frontcourt. In acquiring Griffin, there would be questions of if the Thunder would be any stronger since it would likely have to part with at least one core piece to make the deal work, but it’s a risk worth taking to acquire another star to accompany Westbrook.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Thunder could get Griffin to Oklahoma City. First and foremost, it’s up to Griffin.
